Showing posts with label NDX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NDX. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle In Stocks │ Edward R. Dewey

Another cycle that has done all in its power to keep cycle scientists humble is one averaging 40.68 months in length. It has been present in industrial common-stock prices since 1871 and was discovered in 1912 by a New York group of investors. These gentlemen had learned that the Rothschilds had analyzed British consols (government obligations) and had broken up the price fluctuations into a series of repeating curves that had been combined and used for forecasting. The New York group hired a mathematician to discover the secret formula of the Rothschilds, and working with the Dow-Jones Railroad Averages, he discovered a forty-one-month cycle, plus three others, which his employers used to help them invest in the market. Apparently they were very successful around World War I.
 
Figure 38: The 41-Month Rhythm in Stock Prices, 1868-1945.
 
Some ten years after the original discovery, Professor W. L. Crum, of Harvard, noted a cycle of "39, 40, or 41 months" in monthly commercial-paper rates in New York. Almost simultaneously, Professor Joseph Kitchin, also of Harvard, discovered a cycle that he called forty months in six economic time series, bank clearings, commodity prices, and interest rates in both Great Britain and the United States from 1890 to 1922. As far as I know, it was not until 1935, twenty-three years after the original discovery, that this cycle was again noticed in the stock market. Our old friend Chapin Hoskins, who knew nothing of the earlier work, discovered this cycle in many series of price and production figures, including common-stock prices. Early in 1938 he made an extensive study of this cycle for one of the large investment-trust services.

Figure 38 shows the forty-one-month cycle (now refined to 40.68 months) from 1868 through 1945. As you can see, while its waves are not identical to an ideal 40.68 wave, which is represented by the broken zigzag, there is an amazing correspondence between them. This cycle persisted through wars and peace, good times and depressions.

Then, in 1946, something strange happened to our cycle. Almost as if some giant hand had reached down and pushed it, the cycle stumbled, and by the time it had regained its equilibrium it was marching completely out of step from the ideal cadence it had maintained for so many years. As you can see in Figure 39, it has regained the approximate beat of forty-one months or so, as before, but its behavior now appears upside down on our graph.
 
Figure 39: The 41-Month Rhythm, Upside Down, 1946-1957.
 
Scores of explanations and reams of paper have been expended to explain this behavior. We are familiar with most of the possibilities, such as distortion by random behavior, two or more other cycles of near lengths, and even a general public knowledge of this particular cycle, which may have had a distorting effect on its timing. But, in truth, no one can positively explain what happened in 1946 any more than they can explain the regularity of the rhythm for all the years that preceded it.

 
42-Month Cycle in the DJIA (weekly bars), March 2020 - October 2023.

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE in 2024 | Jack Gillen

 
Date Sun's Longitude Position Effect on US Stock Indexes
     
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees negative = low
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees negative
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees positive = high
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees positive
2024 01 02 (Tue) = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees positive
2024 01 06 (Sat) = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees negative
2024 01 19 (Fri) = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees negative
2024 01 30 (Tue) = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees positive
2024 02 03 (Sat) = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees positive
2024 02 06 (Tue) = SUN @ 17 AQU = 317 degrees negative
2024 02 18 (Sun) = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees negative
2024 02 23 (Fri) = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees negative
2024 02 24 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees negative
2024 03 03 (Sun) = SUN @ 13 PIS = 343 degrees positive
2024 03 11 (Mon) = SUN @ 21 PIS = 351 degrees positive
2024 03 24 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 ARI = 4 degrees positive
2024 03 31 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees positive
2024 04 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees negative
2024 04 13 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees negative
2024 04 26 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees negative
2024 05 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees neutral
2024 05 08 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees negative
2024 05 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees neutral
2024 05 25 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees negative
2024 06 06 (Thu) = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees neutral
2024 06 07 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees negative
2024 06 08 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees neutral
2024 06 29 (Sat) = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees positive
2024 07 04 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees negative
2024 07 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees positive
2024 07 10 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees negative
2024 07 24 (Wed) = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees negative
2024 07 29 (Mon) = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees positive
2024 08 09 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees negative
2024 08 10 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees positive
2024 09 02 (Mon) = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees negative
2024 09 04 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees positive
2024 09 05 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees negative
2024 09 20 (Fri) = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees positive
2024 09 24 (Tue) = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees negative
2024 10 07 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees negative
2024 10 14 (Mon) = SUN @ 21 LIB = 201 degrees positive
2024 10 22 (Tue) = SUN @ 29 LIB = 209 degrees positive
2024 10 25 (Fri) = SUN @ 2 SCO = 212 degrees negative
2024 10 27 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 SCO = 214 degrees negative
2024 11 03 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 SCO = 221 degrees positive
2024 11 21 (Thu) = SUN @ 29 SCO = 239 degrees positive
2024 11 25 (Mon) = SUN @ 3 SAG = 243 degrees positive
2024 12 08 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees negative
2024 12 12 (Thu) = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees negative
2024 12 15 (Sun) = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees positive
2024 12 27 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees positive
2025 01 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees positive
2025 01 06 (Mon) = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees negative
2025 01 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees negative
2025 01 30 (Thu) = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees positive
2025 02 03 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees positive
 
 
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. 
So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:
 Solar Ephemeris.

Friday, December 8, 2023

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | December 2023

 
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. 
So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:
 
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16° SAG
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20° SAG = New Moon
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24° SAG
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 06° CAP
2024 01 02 (Tue) = Sun @ 11° CAP 

 Solar Ephemeris.

Wednesday, December 2, 2020

SoLunar Map | December 2020 - January 2021

Recent and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days: Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu), Dec 07 (Mon), Dec 11 (Fri),
Dec 15 (Tue), Dec 18 (Fri), Dec 22 (Tue), Dec 26 (Sat), Dec 30 (Wed), Jan 02 (Sat), Jan 06 (Wed),
Jan 09 (Sat), Jan 13 (Wed), Jan 17 (Sun), Jan 21 (Thu), Jan 24 (Sun), Jan 28 (Thu), Feb 01 (Mon),
Feb 04 (Thu). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Saturday, October 31, 2020

SoLunar Map | Review and Preview for November 2020

SoLunar Map | Review and Preview for November 2020
Upcoming solunar turn-days: Oct 31 (Sat) = Full Moon, Nov 01 (Sun), Nov 04 (Wed),
Nov 08 (Sun), Nov 11 (Wed), Nov 15 (Sun), Nov 19 (Thu), Nov 22 (Sun), Nov 26 (Thu),
Nov 30 (Mon) = Full Moon, Dec 03 (Thu), Dec 07 (Mon). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Sunday, September 27, 2020

SoLunar Map | October - November 2020

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days:
Sep 24 (Thu), Sep 28 (Mon), Oct 01 (Thu), Oct 05 (Mon), Oct 09 (Fri), Oct 13 (Tue),
Oct 17 (Sat), Oct 20 (Tue), Oct 24 (Sat), Oct 28 (Wed), Nov 01 (Sun), Nov 04 (Wed),
Nov 08 (Sun), Nov 11 (Wed), Nov 15 (Sun), Nov 19 (Thu), Nov 22 (Sun), Nov 26 (Thu),
Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Saturday, October 26, 2019

SoLunar Map | November - December 2019

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days into the end of 2019:
Nov 01 (Fri), Nov 04 (Mon), Nov 08 (Fri), Nov 12 (Tue), Nov 15-16 (Fri-Sat),
Nov 19 (Tue), Nov 23 (Sat), Nov 27 (Wed), Nov 30 (Sat), Dec 04 (Wed), Dec 08 (Sun),
Dec 12 (Thu), Dec 15 (Sun), Dec 19 (Thu), Dec 22 (Sun), Dec 26 (Thu), Dec 30 (Mon),
Jan 02-03 (Thu-fri). Polarization may flip. Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Saturday, August 31, 2019

SoLunar Map | September - October 2019

Polarization should flip over the weekend: Sep 03 (Tue) should be a market high, Sep 07 (Sat) a low, etc.
Previous turn-days HERE

Saturday, June 1, 2019

S&P 500 Index vs SoLunar Map | June 2019

Recent and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days into early July 2019 are:
Jun 03 (Mon), Jun 06 (Thu), Jun 10 (Mon), Jun 13 (Thu),
Jun 17 (Mon), Jun 21 (Fri), Jun 24 (Mon), Jun 28 (Fri), Jul 02 (Sat), Jul 06 (Sat).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Saturday, February 2, 2019

SoLunar Map | February - March 2019

Recent and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days into early April 2019 are:
Feb 01 (Fri), Feb 04 (Mon), Feb 08 (Fri), Feb 12 (Tue),
Feb 15 (Fri), Feb 19 (Tue), Feb 23 (Sat), Feb 27 (Wed),
Mar 02 (Sat), Mar 05-06 (Tue-Wed), Mar 09 (Sat), Mar 13-14 (Wed-Thu),
Mar 17 (Sun), Mar 20 (Wed), Mar 24 (Sun), Mar 28 (Thu), Apr 01 (Mon).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
Review of S&P500 vs SoLunar Map | Preview for February 2019

Saturday, December 1, 2018

SoLunar Map | December 2018 - January 2019

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Dec 04 (Tue), Dec 07 (Fri), Dec 11 (Tue), Dec 15 (Sat), Dec 18 (Tue),
Dec 22 (Sat), Dec 26 (Wed), Dec 29 (Sat), Jan 02 (Wed), Jan 06 (Sun),
Jan 09-10 (Wed-Thu), Jan 13-14 (Sun-Mon), Jan 17 (Thu), Jan 20-21 (Sun-Mon),
Jan 24 (Thu), Jan 28 (Mon), Feb 01 (Fri). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
Review of S&P500 vs SoLunar Map during November 2018 | Preview for December 2018.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

SoLunar Map | October - November 2018

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Sep 28 (Fri), Oct 02 (Tue), Oct 06 (Sat), [Oct 08 (Mon) 22:08 = New Moon] Oct 09 (Tue),
Oct 13 (Sat), Oct 17 (Wed), Oct 20 (Sat), Oct 24 (Wed) 14:26 = Full Moon, Oct 27 (Sat),
Oct 31 (Wed), Nov 04 (Sun), Nov 07 (Wed) 09:23 = New Moon, Nov 08 (Thu), Nov 11 (Sun),
Nov 15 (Thu), Nov 19 (Mon), Nov 23 (Fri) 02:10 = Full Moon, Nov 26 (Mon), Nov 30 (Fri),
Dec 04 (Tue). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
Review of S&P500 vs SoLunar Map during September 2018 | Preview for October 2018.

Saturday, July 21, 2018

SoLunar Map | August - September 2018

This SoLunar Map depicts the bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead.
Of course financial markets are influenced also by other planetary forces, but a 3-5 day short-term
rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month).
The soLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some
long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa.
Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max
+/- 7 days). The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar
activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or
inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a
negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually
short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-
to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and
termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags.
Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Jul 24 (Tue), Jul 27 (Fri),
Jul 31 (Tue), Aug 04 (Sat), Aug 07 (Tue), Aug 11 (Sat) 04:23 = New Moon,
Aug 15 (Wed), Aug 19 (Sun), Aug 22 (Wed), Aug 26 (Sun)) 09:46 = Full Moon,
Aug 29 (Wed), Sep 03 (Mon), Sep 06 (Thu), Sep 09 (Sun) 12:24 = New Moon,
Sep 13 (Thu), Sep 17 (Mon), Sep 21 (Fri), Sep 24 (Mon) [Full Moon = Sep 25 (Tue) 00:39],
Sep 28 (Fri), Oct 02 (Tue).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
Review of S&P500 vs SoLunar Map during July 2018 | Preview for August 2018.
Recent and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days:
Jul 31 (Tue), Aug 04 (Sat), Aug 07 (Tue), Aug 11 (Sat), Aug 15 (Wed),
Aug 19 (Sun), Aug 22 (Wed), Aug 26 (Sun), Aug 29 (Wed), Sep 03 (Mon).

Sunday, May 27, 2018

SoLunar Map | June - July 2018

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
May 29 (Tue), Jun 02 (Sat), Jun 06 (Wed), Jun 09 (Sat), Jun 13 (Wed),
Jun 17 (Sun), Jun 20 (Wed), Jun 24 (Sun), Jun 28 (Thu), Jul 02 (Mon),
Jul 06 (Fri), Jul 09 (Mon), Jul 13 (Fri), Jul 16 (Mon), Jul 20 (Fri),
Jul 24 (Tue), Jul 27 (Fri), Jul 31 (Tue), Aug 04 (Sat).

Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
Review of R2K vs SoLunar Map in May 2018 | Preview for June 2018.